The introduction of 5G technology has ushered in the next phase of growth and transformation in India’s digital landscape, aiming to create a digitally empowered society.
The latest edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report assesses 4G and 5G data traffic trends across India and globally, providing forecasts for the period 2023-29. The report captures how the expansion of 5G is rapidly accelerating subscriptions, increasing mobile data traffic and driving 5G smartphone sales in the country. The report also explores wireless connectivity and how 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) is becoming a key determinant in the country’s digitalisation process. Furthermore, the report highlights the role of large-scale deployment of mid-band 5G standalone (SA) to enhance network quality and experience.
A look at the key highlights of the report…
4G/5G subscriptions
India has witnessed a significant roll-out of 5G networks by service providers since the launch of the technology in October 2022. The adoption of 5G has been driven by the increasing availability of networks in cities, affordable service plans and the growing availability of 5G smartphones in the country. It is expected that 5G subscriptions will reach 130 million in 2023 and grow to 860 million by 2029.
Meanwhile, 4G remains the predominant subscription type, driving connectivity and fuelling data growth in the region. However, with the increasing trend of migration to 5G, 4G subscriptions are projected to decline from 870 million in 2023 to 390 million by 2029. In terms of total subscriptions, 5G subscriptions are estimated to account for 68 per cent of all mobile subscriptions by the end of 2029.
Furthermore, India has recorded 12 million net subscriber additions during the third quarter of 2023, securing its position as the second largest globally. The surge in 5G subscriptions in India has exceeded expectations, and it is anticipated that 5G will become the predominant mobile access technology by subscription in 2028, with total mobile subscriptions projected to reach 1.27 billion in 2029.
Mobile data traffic
Mobile networks continue to play a pivotal role in promoting social and economic inclusion in a country like India. The numbers reflect this growth, with India registering the highest average data traffic per smartphone globally. It is projected to further grow from 31 GB per month in 2023 to around 75 GB per month in 2029, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16 per cent. The ongoing surge in data traffic in India serves as a strong demand driver for mobile networks, with a significant portion of the traffic generated indoors.
The report has estimated that total mobile data traffic will grow from 26 exabytes (EB) per month in 2023 to 73 EB per month in 2029, at a CAGR of 19 per cent. This growth is attributed to the increasing number of smartphone users and the increase in average usage per smartphone.
Moreover, smartphone subscriptions in India have witnessed a growth of 70 million in 2023. Going ahead, smartphone subscriptions in India, as a percentage of total mobile subscriptions, are estimated to increase from 82 per cent in 2023 to 93 per cent in 2029.
5G FWA ecosystem
Within a year of the launch of 5G, leading telecom service providers (TSPs) in India have introduced 5G FWA services, which are considered a significant revenue opportunity in the region. FWA is a connection that provides primary broadband access through mobile network-enabled customer premises equipment (CPE). In India, two major TSPs, Reliance Jio Limited and Bharti Airtel, have launched 5G FWA services to serve homes and businesses in the next two to three years.
The report takes into account the aspirations of 5G FWA in emerging markets, particularly India, both the increase in the number of connections and the share of 5G FWA connections. Increased volumes of 5G FWA in large, high-growth countries like India have the potential to drive economies of scale for the overall 5G FWA ecosystem, resulting in affordable CPE that will positively impact across low-income markets.
Global 5G FWA connections
Globally, the number of service providers offering FWA over 5G is increasing, with more than half (55 per cent) of the growth during the past 12 months attributed to new 5G FWA launches in emerging markets. The Ericsson report projects that FWA connections worldwide will increase from 130 million to 330 million by the end of 2029, constituting 18 per cent of all fixed broadband connections. Of these projected connections, almost 85 per cent are expected to be supported by 5G technology.
As per the report, FWA data traffic is expected to account for 19 per cent of global mobile data traffic by the end of 2023 and is estimated to grow fivefold to reach 159 EB in 2029, which is around 30 per cent of the total mobile network data traffic.
5G SA deployment in India
The Ericsson Mobility Report states that the deployment of large-scale 5G SA networks in India will drive digital transformation as TSPs strive to leverage new business opportunities for both consumers and enterprises. Indian 5G subscribers are already experiencing significantly better mobile network speeds, with the ongoing increase in 5G SA coverage and capacity.
According to the report, Jio has established itself at the forefront of 5G SA deployments in India, firmly believing that 5G can catalyse economic growth by fostering innovation in various sectors such as manufacturing, healthcare, agriculture, transportation and education. These innovations may also contribute to job creation and increased economic productivity, which is the key goal of India’s digital transformation efforts.
Moreover, 5G can assist India in achieving its ambitious climate commitments and sustainable development goals by improving environmental monitoring and conservation efforts. For instance, it can offer real-time data on climate, pollution and wildlife tracking.
Furthermore, the implementation of a nationwide 5G SA network has led to significant growth in SA-supported devices. Remarkably, all new 5G devices released in India now support SA, with over 90 per cent supporting carrier aggregation and voice over new radio out of the box. This implies that 5G SA provides increased control over network resources, enabling more defined service quality management and enhanced customisation of services compared to non-SA architecture.
On a national scale, 5G subscribers are more satisfied with network performance compared to 4G subscribers. A recent Ericsson ConsumerLab study compared consumer satisfaction with 4G versus 5G across various aspects such as mobile gaming, video streaming, download speeds and video calling. The study showed that 5G consumers in India consistently reported significantly higher levels of satisfaction, with a nearly 30 per cent increase compared to 4G users. This trend is facilitated by widespread 5G coverage, carrier aggregation between mid-band and low-band, and the deployment of massive multiple-input, multiple-output radios at each site.
Future trends
The Ericsson Mobility Report estimates that 5G technology will achieve a penetration rate of 11 per cent in India by the end of 2023. As we advance into the digital era, e-commerce and e-governance will continue to play a key role in transforming the country in the coming years. Further, projections imply that almost one in five of all global mobile subscriptions will be 5G subscriptions by the end of 2023 globally. These figures demonstrate the positive shift in people’s behaviour, particularly in the adoption of 5G and FWA services.
