According to a report by GlobalData, the total telecom and pay-TV services revenue in India is expected to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.5 per cent from $44.9 billion in 2024 to $50.7 billion in 2029, primarily driven by mobile data and fixed broadband segment.
The report reveals that mobile voice service revenues will decline during the forecast period due to a steady decrease in mobile voice service average revenue per user (ARPU), with users increasingly shifting to over-the-top (OTT) communication platforms.
Mobile data service revenues, on the other hand, will continue to increase at a healthy CAGR of 5.5 per cent over the forecast period, driven by the continued rise in smartphone adoption, growing mobile internet subscriptions, and increasing consumption of mobile data services on the back of expanding 4G subscriber base and projected rise in the adoption of higher ARPU-5G services.
Commenting on the report, Srikanth Vaidya, telecom analyst, GlobalData, says, “4G is the leading mobile technology by subscriber base in India, accounting for 68.9 per cent of total mobile subscriptions registered in 2024. However, this share is expected to decline to 32.1 per cent in 2029, due largely to subscriber migration to high-speed 5G services. 5G services, on the other hand, accounted for 15 cent of total mobile subscriptions in 2024, which will increase to 61.8 per cent in 2029, driven by ongoing 5G network expansions by mobile operators. For instance, Airtel’s 5G network reached 140,000 villages as of September 2024. Reliance Jio, on the other hand, has completed its 5G rollout with 100 per cent nationwide coverage, as of August 2024.”
In the fixed communication services segment, fixed voice service revenues will decline over the forecast period due to steady losses in circuit-switched subscriptions and declining fixed voice ARPU. Fixed broadband service revenues, on the other hand, will increase at a CAGR of 6.2 per cent over the 2024-29 period in line with the steady rise in fixed broadband subscriptions, particularly over FTTH/B access lines.
Following its launch by operators Jio and Airtel in late 2023, 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) service is expected to complement the existing fixed broadband infrastructure and drive broadband service adoption further in the country.
Further, Pay-TV service revenues in the country will decline over the forecast period due to the continued drop in cable TV, DTH, and IPTV subscriptions and falling pay-TV ARPU levels as a result of the ongoing user migration to OTT-based video service platforms.
