According to a report by Counterpoint Research, global smartphone shipments will show a five per cent year-on-year (YoY) growth in 2024 to reach 1.23 billion units after two consecutive years of decline. This is an upward revision from the previous forecast of under four per cent YoY growth, as macroeconomic conditions and consumer sentiment continue to improve. The positive momentum will continue in the coming years despite ongoing geopolitical turbulence in Europe and the Middle East.
The report mentioned that the introduction of GenAI-based devices will catalyse some additional growth beyond 2024. As consumer awareness of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) devices grows, original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) will increasingly incorporate GenAI features. Further, Chinese OEMs such as Huawei, HONOR and Motorola will drive growth in the foldable smartphone market. Furthermore, Apple’s entry into foldables, expected in 2027, will bring momentum to the new form factor, strengthening the ecosystem further.
Commenting on the report, Liz Lee, associate director, Counterpoint Research, said, “In the longer term, we expect more new smartphone users to enter the market, leading to a steady accretion in the overall installed base. While this will be driven by emerging markets like the Middle East and Africa, Caribbean and Latin America, India and Southeast Asia, growth can also be expected in North America and even Europe, which is largely a replacement market now. Key mature markets such as China, Japan and South Korea will also play a role in long-term revenue growth with an increasing mix of high-value smartphones.”
Meanwhile, Harmeet Singh Walia, senior analyst, Counterpoint Research, said, “The share of GenAI-capable smartphones is expected to go from less than a fifth in 2024 to more than half in 2028. Apple intelligence (Apple’s AI), available in its upcoming models, will boost GenAI devices in the whole smartphone market. It could create an opportunity for Apple to rise to the top in annual shipments as soon as in 2025.”
