According to Counterpoint Research’s smartphone AP-SoC long-term shipment forecast by node and foundry report, after two years of significant declines, the smartphone semiconductor market is likely to turn corner, with 2024 smartphone application processor system-on- chip (AP-SoC) shipments rebounding 9 per cent year- on- year (Y-o-Y). The key driver of this growth will be transition from 5/4nm chips to 3nm chips across flagships, as well as expected growth in premium and ultra-premium smartphones. TSMC will be the key foundry beneficiary here in long term.
Commenting on the report, Brady Wang, associate director, Counterpoint research’s foundry and semiconductor 360 research services, said, “With all the growth coming from advanced nodes, this is positive for TSMC through long term. And with surge in artificial intelligence (AI) semiconductors, short term view looks even brighter.”
Supporting growth of advanced nodes will be 5/4nm, which is set to become another long-term node as smartphone original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) switch more of their portfolios to entry-level 5G because of growth in emerging markets, growing consumer awareness, and rise in demand for 5G as a feature in line with expanding network coverage.
Meanwhile, Parv Sharma, senior analyst, Counterpoint’s semiconductor 360 research service, said, “For fabless, it is a given that both MediaTek and Qualcomm are going to be big winners in 4G-to-5G transition. It is a good opportunity for MediaTek to capitalise on its leading-edge sweet spot, but we still see Qualcomm dominating through 2025 when it will have almost 50 per cent share of 5/4nm segment.”
SMIC will see increasing relevance in 7/6nm but will likely face challenges in any shift towards more advanced nodes as data under voice (DUV) equipment bans slow progress.
2nm continues to be elusive but will likely emerge in 2026 with arrival of Apple’s iPhone 19 series.
