According to CLSA, Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel are expecting to see growth in the combined revenue market share (RMS) from 77 per cent to 81 per cent in the financial year (FY) 2025, while Vodafone Idea Limited (Vi) continues to receive losses, further pressurised by its delay in the 5G rollout. Once that is set to happen, the combined RMS of Jio and Airtel will increase by 17.5 per cent from 63.5 per cent back in September 2019. Vi’s RMS has seen a 10 per cent point erosion between September 2019 and March 2023.
As per CLSA, Jio and Airtel’s RMS will rise to 43 per cent and 38 per cent respectively from 41 per cent and 36 per cent respectively by FY25. Vi is expected to further dip by 16 per cent point especially with the other two operators expanding 5G coverage.
The data released by the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) shows that Airtel and Jio cornered 94 per cent of the incremental adjusted gross revenue (AGR) which also includes national long-distance market share, as Vi’s fell by 2.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of FY23. Incremental AGR reflects the portion of the increase in the industry revenue that accrues to a telco, whereas RMS is a measure of overall telecom market leadership. If the incremental revenue market share is higher than the current market share, then the current RMS is expected to rise over a certain period of time.
Jio and AIrtel’s incremental AGR market shares were 51.2 per cent and 42.8 per cent respectively, which is higher than their current RMS levels in Q4FY23. This indicates that there will be further gains in RMS for Jio and Airtel in the coming quarters as they expand 5G operations. Jio and Airtel are targeting pan-India rollouts of 5G networks by December 2023, while Vi is yet to announce a 5G rollout timeline.
