According to a report by Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), India’s exports to the US, its largest overseas market, have seen a sharp decline due to aggressive tariff hikes imposed by Washington. Between May and October 2025, outbound shipments fell 28.5 per cent, dropping from $8.83 billion to $6.31 billion.
The fall followed a rapid escalation in US tariffs, which started at 10 per cent on April 2, 2025, increased to 25 per cent on August 7, 2025, and reached 50 per cent by late August, making Indian products among the most heavily taxed compared to any other US trade partner. In contrast, China faced tariffs of around 30 per cent, while Japan encountered only 15 per cent.
Further, tariff-exempt categories such as smartphones, pharmaceuticals and petroleum products formed 40.3 per cent of India’s exports in October 2025 but still recorded a 25.8 per cent drop, declining from $3.42 billion in May to $2.54 billion in October, amounting to a $881 million contraction.
Moreover, monthly exports fell steadily from $2 billion in June to $1.52 billion in July 2025, plunged to $964.8 million in August 2025, eased further to $884.6 million in September 2025, and finally recovered to $1.5 billion in October 2025.
