According to GenAI Smartphone Shipments and Insights report from Counterpoint Research Smartphone 360 Service, generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) smartphone share of overall smartphone shipments will reach 11 per cent by 2024 and 43 per cent by 2027 to pass 550 million units in 2027 with a 4 times growth. The report expects GenAI smartphone installed base to cross 1 billion by 2027. Against the backdrop of Apple’s anticipated entry into the segment later this year, these estimates are higher than Counterpoint’s earlier forecast of December 2023.
Counterpoint Research defines GenAI smartphone as a mobile device that leverages large-scale, pre-trained GenAI models to create original content or perform contextually aware tasks. The report expects such devices to have multimodal capabilities, allowing them to process text, image, voice and other inputs to generate a variety of output and enable a user experience that is fluid and seamless. According to the report, the hardware specifications of such devices will likely evolve as the technology advances. But at present, a device should have hardware capabilities that are comparable to or exceed the performance of current flagship smartphones to effectively run GenAI models.
Commenting on the report, Tarun Pathak, research director, Counterpoint Research, said, “More than ten original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) have launched over thirty GenAI-capable smartphones so far. Artificial intelligence (AI) in smartphones has been a key talking point since the start of this year, especially after successful debut of Galaxy S24 series, where Samsung has gained good mind share in marketing early AI use cases. We expect Samsung to lead GenAI smartphone OEM rankings in 2024. This is the second trend in past couple of years where Samsung enjoyed an early-mover advantage, the first one being success of its foldables. The AI advantage will provide Samsung momentum in mid-to-premium smartphone segment as GenAI features get recognised more broadly in coming years. Apart from Samsung, Apple’s anticipated entry in the space will further help the segment’s growth. Once Apple enters, we expect AI to immediately become a must-have feature in all mid-to-premium smartphone launches starting 2025. However, the real differentiation will lie in the use cases as consumers are still evaluating potential impact of AI in their future devices.”
Meanwhile, Mohit Agrawal, associate director, Counterpoint Research, said, “Smartphones of the future will be more personalised to cater to individual needs and preferences, and AI will play a central role in driving these personalised experiences. As OEMs differentiate themselves on AI positioning, the key here will be evolution of AI use cases. Currently, these use cases include enhanced imaging capabilities, translation features, improved app experiences, content recommendations, creating more personalised content, and more. These use cases will evolve as large language models (LLMs) will continue to grow in both size and efficiency. Counterpoint believes that integration of edge (mobile devices) and cloud will be the mainstream model for GenAI in smartphones, and OEMs with an equally strong play in software capabilities, along with strategic industry partnerships, are likely to stay ahead of the competition.”
Further, the report projects GenAI smartphones to hit an inflection point in 2025 as devices permeate the broader price segments, especially the $400-$599 price tier. More than or equal to $600 and $400-$599 price bands will account for 9 out of every 10 GenAI smartphones sold in 2024. Leading chipset companies such as MediaTek and Qualcomm have already taken the lead in embracing GenAI smartphones. They have launched several mobile computing platforms that support multimodal large AI models on devices. It is expected that Qualcomm will lead in AI system-on-chip (SoC) space in 2024, capturing almost half of all GenAI smartphone shipments, followed by MediaTek with a 13 per cent share.
