According to a report by Ericsson, 5G Standalone (5G SA) and 5G Advanced are expected to be key focuses for communications service providers (CSPs) for the remainder of the decade as they deploy new capabilities to create offerings centered on value delivery rather than data volume.
Total mobile network data traffic (including fixed wireless access (FWA)) is expected to grow almost three-fold by the end of 2030 from present day numbers.
Of about 320 CSPs currently offering commercial 5G services, less than 20 per cent are 5G SA. The densification of mid-band and 5G SA sites is seen as a key catalyst to capitalise on the full potential of 5G, including programmable and intelligent network capabilities. 5G mid-band is currently deployed at only about 30 per cent of sites globally. Almost 60 per cent of the 6.3 billion global 5G subscriptions forecast by the end of 2030 are expected to be 5G SA subscriptions.
Commenting on the report, Umang Jindal, head of Network Solutions, Software and Performance, Southeast Asia, Oceania and India, Ericsson, said, ” generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) may significantly impact future mobile network traffic, particularly through increased video consumption and changing uplink requirements. Accelerated consumer uptake of Gen AI will cause a steady increase of traffic in addition to the baseline increase.India already has the highest average monthly usage per smartphone at 32 GB, which is expected to grow to 66GB by 2030, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 13 per cent.”
The report also addresses how AI, including Gen AI applications – already integrated across smartphones, laptops, watches and FWA products – could impact uplink and downlink network traffic, driving potential mobile traffic growth beyond current baseline predictions.
On global mobile data traffic, 5G networks are expected to carry about 80 per cent of total mobile data traffic by the end of 2030 – compared to 34 per cent by the end of 2024.
FWA continues to grow in popularity globally as the second largest 5G use case after enhanced mobile broadband (eMBB).
In four out of six regions, more than 80 per cent of CSPs now offer FWA. The number of FWA service providers offering speed-based tariff plans – with downlink and uplink data parameters similar to cable or fiber offerings – has increased from 30 per cent to 43 per cent in the last year alone. Of the 350 million projected global FWA connections by the end of 2030, almost 80 per cent are forecast to be over 5G.
Other featured report statistics include the projection that global 5G subscriptions are expected to reach almost 2.3 billion by the end of 2024, amounting to 25 per cent of all global mobile subscriptions. 5G subscription numbers are expected to overtake the global number of 4G subscriptions during 2027.
The first 6G deployments are expected in 2030, building on and scaling the capabilities of 5G SA and 5G Advanced.
According to the report, in India
5G subscriptions are projected to reach over 270 million by the end of 2024, accounting for 23 per cent of the total mobile subscriptions in the region. 5G subscriptions are expected to reach around 970 million by the end of 2030, accounting for 74 per cent of mobile subscriptions. Enhanced mobile broadband and FWA have emerged as the initial 5G use cases. 4G continues to be the dominant subscription type, contributing 54 per cent of the total mobile subscriptions currently.
Based on the strong 5G uptake, 4G subscriptions are forecast to decline from 640 million in 2024 to 240 million in 2030, contributing around 18 per cent of the total mobile subscriptions.
India has made large-scale mid-band deployments and is expected to reach around 95 per cent population coverage by the end of 2024.
