Cisco has published the findings of its annual Visual Networking Index Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast. As per the report, mobile data traffic is expected to increase nearly 11-fold over the next four years to reach 190 exabytes by 2018, while 4G traffic will grow 18-fold from 2013 to 2018, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 78 per cent.

Cisco has stated that the increase in mobile traffic is due to growth in the number of mobile internet connections such as personal devices and machine-to-machine (M2M) connections, which are expected to reach over 10 billion by 2018. Further, the incremental amount of data traffic being added to the mobile network between 2013 and 2018 is expected to be 5.1 exabytes per month, which is more than three times the estimated size of the entire traffic in 2013 (1.5 exabytes per month). From 2013 to 2018, telecom equipment vendor expects that mobile traffic growth will outgrow global fixed traffic growth by a factor of three.

Following are the key trends identified in the Visual Networking Index Global Mobile Data Traffic Forecast –

Mobile data traffic

By 2018, there will be 4.9 billion mobile users, up from 4.1 billion in 2013.

By 2018, there will be more than 10 billion mobile-ready devices/connections – including 8 billion personal mobile devices and two billion M2M connections, up from seven billion total mobile-ready devices and M2M connections in 2013.

Average global mobile network speeds will double from 1.4 Mbps in 2013 to 2.5 Mbps by 2018.

By 2018, mobile video will represent 69 per cent of the global mobile data traffic, up from 53 percent in 2013.

Globally, 54 per cent of the mobile connections will be ?smart? connections by 2018, up from 21 per cent in 2013. Smart devices and connections will feature advanced computing/multi-media capabilities and support 3G connectivity.

Smartphones, laptops, and tablets will drive about 94 per cent of the global mobile data traffic by 2018. M2M traffic will represent five per cent of 2018 global mobile data traffic while basic handsets will account for 1 per cent of the global mobile data traffic by 2018. Other portables devices will account for 0.1 per cent of the data traffic.

Mobile cloud traffic will grow 12-fold from 2013 to 2018, at a CAGR of 64 per cent.

In 2013, M2M connections represented nearly five per cent of mobile-connected devices in use and generated more than one per cent of the total mobile data traffic.

By 2018, M2M connections will represent about 20 per cent of mobile-connected devices in use and generate almost six per cent of the total mobile data traffic.

Globally, the number of wearable devices will increase from 21.7 million in 2013 growing at a CAGR of 52 per cent.

The average mobile connection is expected to nearly double from 2013 to 2018. Mobile connection speeds are going to be a key factor in supporting/accommodating mobile data traffic growth.

4G data traffic

By 2018, 4G connections will support 15 per cent of all mobile connections, up from 2.9 per cent in 2013.

By 2018, 4G connections will support 51 per cent, or 8 exabytes per month, of total mobile data traffic, up from 30 per cent, or 448 petabytes per month, in 2013.

4G traffic will grow 18-fold from 2013 to 2018, at a CAGR of 78 per cent.

By 2018, more mobile data traffic will be offloaded onto Wi-Fi from mobile-connected devices (17.3 exabytes per month) as against data traffic of about 15.9 exabytes per month on mobile networks.

By 2018, 52 per cent of the global mobile traffic will be offloaded onto Wi-Fi/small cell networks, up from 45 per cent in 2013.

Mobile video traffic will increase 14-fold from 2013 to 2018.

By 2018, mobile video will account for 69 per cent of the global mobile traffic, up from 53 per cent in 2013.

The share of web and other data applications in the global data traffic will decline from 28 per cent in 2013 to 17 per cent by 2018.

The share of streaming video in the global data traffic will decline from 14 per cent in 2013 to 11 per cent by 2018.

The share of file sharing in the global data traffic will decline from 4 per cent in 2013 to 3 per cent by 2018.