Views of Umang Jindal: “There is huge potential for investments in 5G networks”

In the past few years, 5G has reshaped global connectivity dynamics. India has emerged as a leader in 5G deployment by achieving near-complete coverage in record time and driving massive growth in data consumption. With the integration of technologies such as slicing, artificial intelligence and augmented reality, the industry is poised for a new wave of innovation and investments. At the launch of the Ericsson Mobility Report in November 2024, Umang Jindal, Head, Network Solutions, Southeast Asia, Oceania and India, Ericsson, shared the company’s insights on the Indian telecom sector, as well as its projections for 2030. Edited excerpts…

The global average data consumed per subscriber per month stands at around 19 GB. This is expected to touch 40 GB in the future, indicating a twofold increase. In India, the story is even more optimistic. In 2023, the average data per subscriber per month stood at 28 GB, which increased to 32 GB in 2024. This is further expected to reach 66 GB per subscriber per month by 2030. 5G is expected to play a key role here.

India launched 5G in record time globally and with record coverage. It was the only country to achieve 95 per cent coverage. That said, there is huge potential for investments in 5G networks in India
and globally.

5G progress and future

India today has around 23 per cent of 5G subscriptions, which are expected to reach 74 per cent by 2030. This is a whopping growth of three times. In absolute numbers, our estimates show that by the end of 2024, India will have touched approximately 270 million 5G subscriptions. This should go up to 970 million by 2030.

Globally, 5G subscriptions are projected to reach 6.3 billion by 2030. Of these, 3.6 billion will be powered by 5G standalone (SA), indicating that telcos around the world will have huge investments in 5G SA networks, and more and more services will emerge out of 5G SA. Region-wise, most countries in North America, Western Europe and the Gulf will see over 90 per cent 5G subscriptions by 2030.

There are also interesting insights on what type of data will be consumed most on these 5G networks. We see four key applications emerging on 5G networks. Firstly, fixed wireless access (FWA) is evolving rapidly and continuously due to increasing demand for connectivity in households with multiple TVs and gaming consoles. It is estimated that by the end of 2024, India had approximately 6 million FWA connections. By 2030, the country will have at least 80 million FWA connections.

Secondly, RedCap (reduced capability) is a new and upcoming trend that is being tried across operators and countries. A lot of new devices are coming up and by next year, we expect these devices to be more economical, and have better energy consumption.

Thirdly, non-terrestrial networks, involving satellite-based connectivity, will enable basic services such as voice and SMS and advanced services such as internet of things in remote areas such as the Himalayas, deserts, rivers and seas. These networks will integrate with 4G and 5G to provide seamless connectivity.

Finally, 5G slicing continues to be a key application. We are now witnessing a growing trend of advanced slicing, and one of the terms that we are using for this is differentiated connectivity.

Meanwhile, emerging applications such as augmented reality, virtual reality and extended reality, along with video applications, are driving the demand for enhanced uplinking capabilities. Communication service providers are exploring opportunities to offer new video content services. Enhancing uplink capabilities requires combining different spectrum bands. In India, operators currently use two spectrum bands for 5G and are working on carrier aggregation to boost uplink and downlink performance. Plans for refarming existing 4G carriers are also under way, with significant developments expected in 2025.

The path to 6G

6G is already round the corner and is expected to start taking off in 2029. That said, initially (during 2029-30), the number of global subscriptions will be few. There will only be a few countries talking about 6G from a commercial deployment point of view. Nonetheless, we will witness lots of trials and tests taking place around the world.