Vi may continue losing subscriber market share to Jio and Airtel, says Centrum report
According to a report by Centrum, India’s telecom sector is set for steady growth in the fourth quarter of financial year 2026 (Q4FY26), supported by rising average revenue per user (ARPU), strong subscriber additions by market leaders, and a favourable pricing environment. The report highlights that rising ARPU will drive the performance of telecom operators, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of around 1 per cent expected, led by migration from 2G to 4G and 5G, as well as postpaid subscriber additions.
Market dynamics remain tilted in favour of larger players, with Bharti Airtel and Reliance Jio expected to continue gaining subscriber market share at the expense of Vodafone Idea Limited (Vi). Jio is projected to add around 5 million subscribers sequentially, while Airtel may add around 6.5 million. In contrast, Vi is expected to continue losing customers, with the report projecting a loss of around 1 million subscribers quarter-on-quarter.
Data consumption trends remain robust, supported by growing penetration of 4G and 5G networks, as both Jio and Airtel expand their 5G footprint across more than 90 per cent of districts. The sector’s pricing outlook is also improving. With only four players in the market, the report notes a more favourable pricing environment and expects another round of tariff hikes, with a 12 to 15 per cent increase anticipated by July 2026.
Growth opportunities are also emerging from newer segments, with telecom majors seeing strong traction in 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) and fixed broadband additions, driven by low penetration in these areas.
Among individual companies, Airtel is expected to maintain industry-leading ARPU, while Jio’s growth will be supported by 5G FWA expansion. Vi’s performance will depend on fund-raising and capital expenditure execution, with management commentary on its ongoing capex activity and fund-raise programme closely watched.
Overall, the report maintains a positive stance on the sector, with a focus on ARPU expansion and improving return ratios as key drivers. It retains its ratings, expressing preference for Airtel and Indus Towers among telecom players.
