5G continues to make significant impact on the mobile industry and its customers. The number of 5G connections worldwide surpassed 1.5 billion at the end of 2023, four years since the arrival of the technology, establishing it as the fastest growing mobile broadband technology to date. In addition, 5G is reshaping the private network landscape, offering unprecedented connectivity and transformative capabilities in enterprise set-ups. Meanwhile, the discussion on the future of mobile networks is being driven by open radio access networks (O-RAN), with initial implementations already visible in developed markets.
A look at the global updates on 5G networks, private 5G and O-RAN…
5G deployment and adoption
As of end January 2024, GSA identified 585 operators across 176 countries and territories that had invested in 5G, including trials, licence acquisitions, planning, network deployment and launches. Of these, 297 operators in 117 countries and territories had launched or soft-launched 5G mobile services while 124 operators had invested in 5G standalone (SA), including evaluation, testing, piloting, planning, deployment and launch of 5G SA networks. The spectrum bands that supported the deployment of 5G networks are C-band, 700 MHz, 26/28 GHz, 2.1 GHz and 2.5 GHz.
On the consumption front, as per the latest edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report, global 5G subscriptions surpassed 1.6 billion, accounting for 18 per cent of all mobile subscriptions as of November 2023. Meanwhile, the number of commercially available devices has been growing steadily over the past few years, particularly since the end of 2021. GSA data indicates that the number of announced 5G devices rose by 3.5 per cent between November and December 2023, reaching a total of 2,358 devices. Of these, 1,964 are reported to be commercially available, constituting 83.2 per cent of all announced 5G devices. This marks a 37 per cent increase in the number of commercial 5G devices since the end of December 2022. This upward growth is expected to continue during 2024.
Fixed wireless access (FWA) has emerged as one of the early success stories of 5G in several markets. According to the GSMA, the solution has reached more than 5 per cent adoption among households in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Austria, the US, Germany and Australia. This represents a significant opportunity for operators aiming to drive revenue growth, cater to new market segments and better utilise network assets. It also provides high speed fixed broadband connectivity to underserved households and can help close the digital divide both between and within countries. However, in the majority of countries, 5G FWA adoption remains low, highlighting significant room for growth.
Private 5G networks 
Another significant source of revenue generation for telcos is the deployment of private 5G networks. These networks provide enterprises significantly improved levels of speed, reliability and low-latency communications compared to 4G. The demand for private mobile networks, based on 4G LTE and 5G technologies, is being driven by the escalating data, security, digitalisation and mobility requirements of modern enterprise and government entities. Organisations across various sectors are integrating connected systems with big data and analytics to transform operations, increase automation and efficiency, and deliver new services. Wireless networking with LTE or 5G enables these transformations even in the most dynamic, remote or highly secure environments, while offering the scale benefits of a technology already deployed worldwide. The exact number of existing private mobile networks is difficult to determine as details are not often publicly disclosed. However, according to GSA estimates, the total number of private network customer references stood at 1,384 in the fourth quarter of 2023, with at least one network deployed. The quarter saw a net addition of 105 customer references, up from 1,279 in the third quarter of 2023. The actual number of networks could be higher. According to the GSMA, by the end of 2023, 64 per cent of operators were reported to have either launched or been testing private 5G networks, almost double the figure from 2022, which stood at 34 per cent.
Despite regional variations, certain markets have made significant progress in the development of private wireless networks. In Europe, Germany, France, the UK, the Nordic countries and Spain are leading the deployment of these networks. In Asia, the Korean Ministry of Science and ICT established operational private 5G networks in 48 locations, a substantial increase from 2022 levels. Meanwhile, in China, progress in private networks and 5G is a key driver of B2B revenue growth for all operators, with deployment cases such as multi-access edge computing nodes and ultra-low-latency internet of things services.
India lags behind other geographies in terms of private 5G network adoption. According to the GSA, India ranks 16th on this parameter. Industry experts attribute this slow uptake to the lack of prominent use cases, the absence of an integrated ecosystem for bundled services, reluctance to acquire spectrum through leasing or network slicing from telcos, and a higher dependency on telcos.
State of O-RAN
Telecom operators globally are initiating trial runs to effectively implement O-RAN. O-RAN network investments have steadily increased in recent years, primarily by greenfield network operators in the Asia Pacific and North American regions. According to a GSMA survey of 119 global telecom operators, over 80 per cent confirmed the inclusion of O-RAN in their technology roadmaps, with more than half of them planning to deploy open networks in the next two years. Some of the largest players, including Vodafone Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Telecom Italia, and Telefónica, have already announced their readiness for O-RAN by 2025.
However, large-scale deployments of open architectures are limited. This is primarily due to the lack of competitive technology and products, as well as the immaturity of system integration and operations models. As we enter 2024, the O-RAN ecosystem has yet to overcome these challenges.
Future outlook
5G networks will continue to capture an increasing share of overall network connections. Developed regions such as Asia Pacific, North America and Europe are leading this expansion, and are expected to witness robust growth till 2030. By 2025, 5G networks are likely to cover one-third of the world’s population. 5G SA and 5G-Advanced represent the next stage of the 5G evolution to support new market demands before the development and launch of 6G towards the end of the decade.
As for private 5G, deployments are expected to increase in 2024 and beyond. The availability of new 5G spectrum in various markets and the virtualisation of network solutions serve as primary factors attracting new entrants into the private 5G ecosystem. According to Analysys Mason, the number of private LTE/5G networks worldwide will grow from around 4,000 in 2022 to over 60,000 in 2028. However, the overall market is still developing. The majority of private 5G network customers are in the early stages of adoption, with specific outcomes such as financial returns yet to be ascertained.
Further, the O-RAN market is expected to stagnate during 2024. However, the long-term forecast remains positive, with O-RAN set to account for 20-30 per cent of worldwide RAN revenues by 2028, up from 7-10 per cent in 2024. Over time, operators will incorporate more virtualisation, intelligence, automation and O-RAN into their RAN roadmaps. Investments are expected to increase after 2025, with telecom operators investing more than $30 billion between 2022 and 2030. While 5G will continue to see a mixed mode of architectures, 6G, which will be launched as early as 2030, will inherently be O-RAN-based from day one.
