The research report titled, ?The emerging Asia-Pacific telecoms market: trends and forecasts 2011-2016,” from Analysys Mason estimates that the total telecoms service revenue in Asia-Pacific will reach $ 323.7 billion by 2016.
The report says that the retail telecoms revenue from all services other than fixed voice will increase between 2011 and 2016. This growth will be lead by mobile handset data revenue, which will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of more than 20 per cent.
According to the research firm the key trends driving the growth in telecoms revenue and the number of connections in the next five years include the roll-out of 3G and 4G services and, the growing demand for internet access and improved broadband coverage and connectivity. Both 3G and 4G services will account for 46 per cent of mobile connections in the Asia-Pacific region by 2016, the growing demand for internet access will lead to widespread take-up of smartphones and mobile broadband. The industry will witness greater network coverage and higher international bandwidth.
In Asia-Pacific region, China and India together account for 68 per cent of the region?s population, 64 per cent of its active mobile SIMs and 75 per cent of its total retail telecoms revenue. The latter is heavily skewed towards China, where overall telecoms revenue is expected to grow from $138 billion in 2011 to $194 billion in 2016.
Analysys Mason estimates that active mobile penetration rates in the region will rise to 95 per cent by 2016, an increase of
32 per cent increase from 2011. The number of active SIMs will increase from 2.33 billion in 2011 to 3.7 billion by 2016.
Alexandra Rehak, co-author of the report, says, ?As mobile penetration approaches 100 per cent, operators in the emerging APAC region will look to rural areas, and opportunities to provide customers with more than one SIM, in order to maintain growth in subscriber numbers. They will strive to develop more sophisticated strategies to drive mobile data revenue and encourage retention within a largely prepaid subscriber base.?
The report says that 3G will become the dominant mobile technology in the emerging APAC. By 2016, 41 per cent of active SIMs in the region will be 3G, compared with just 11 per cent in 2011. Between 2012 and 2016 long-term-evolution (LTE) technology will have limited impact on the industry because of constraints related to device availability and affordability. Further, the delays in rolling out LTE spectrum auction timings and operator capex constraints will limit the impact of LTE on the industry. Even by 2016, LTE devices will account for less than 5 per cent of the active SIM base in the region. LTE device penetration will be slightly higher in China and Malaysia, at 7 per cent and 8 per cent respectively. At 3 per cent each, the penetration will be lower in India, Indonesia and Thailand.
The report states that the voice market in the region will continue to be heavily dominated by wireless segment during the forecast period, with 90 per cent of the voice connections being wireless by 2016, up from 84 per cent in 2011 and from 73 per cent in 2008. Overall, the number of voice connections in the region will increase by 45 per cent, to 3.9 billion connections, with most of this growth coming from China and India.
As per the report, the mobile average revenue per user (ARPU) in emerging APAC markets has declined significantly in recent years. The ARPUs have declined from a regional average of $10 per month in 2008 to $7.40 in 2011 (although this varies significantly from country to country). The decline is a consequence of decreasing tariffs across the region, the extension of services to lower-income users who spend less on telecoms than established subscribers, and the increasing numbers of subscribers who have more than one SIM.
Analysys Mason expects the regional decline in mobile ARPU to continue between 2011 and 2016. However, the decline will be at a slower pace as compared to 2008?2011, because increased spending on non-voice services will somewhat mitigate the effects that have driven the decline to date. Mobile ARPU across emerging APAC markets will average $6.5 by 2016.
The report suggests that the broadband services in the region will become more diverse, as wireless technologies reach new areas and fibre is rolled out in cities. Mobile and fixed wireless will account for more than one-third of broadband connections in the emerging APAC region in 2016 ? and for the vast majority of connections in rural areas where fixed-line infrastructure is unavailable. Broadband will become an increasingly important revenue source for both fixed and mobile operators, as its availability becomes more widespread and the demand for data services continues to grow.
