As chief executive officer and member of the board of directors of the GSM Association, Rob Conway represents the interests of over 600 GSM mobile operators in more than 210 countries across the world. In this capacity, he works closely with industry leaders to provide a strategic direction and agenda for the mobile wireless business. In a recent interview with tele.net, he talks about the growth of GSM, the transition to 3G and the competition from CDMA…

How would you describe the growth in GSM worldwide?

The growth in GSM has been nothing short of extraordinary. Less than 15 years old, GSM is used by 1.5 billion people ?? about a quarter of the people on the planet. When you consider that it took the fixed line industry one hundred years to connect 1 billion people, the global spread and take-up of GSM has really been revolutionary.

How has the pace of “evolution” been? Has it been in line with your expectations?

GSM technology has come a long way over the past 15 years, with steady improvements in voice quality, network efficiency and data speeds. Some commentators say that take-up of 3GSM (WCDMA) has been slower than they had anticipated, but actually the growth of 3GSM has been far faster than GSM at the equivalent stage of development. The 3GSM user base is growing rapidly ?? with more than 40 million users today. As handset prices continue to fall and networks roll out, that rapid growth will continue.Forecasters typically overestimate the short-term impact of new technologies and underestimate their long-term impact.We believe that will be the case with 3GSM, particularly as today’s 3G networks are upgraded with HSDPA technology, which offers speeds comparable to broadband fixed lines.

What would you consider as the high points of the evolution?

The high points include:

  • GSM becoming a truly global mobile system, allowing travellers to use their mobile phones across the globe. Almost 80 per cent of the world’s population lives in areas covered by GSM networks.
  • The phenomenal and unexpected popularity of text messaging, which has given people a new, and often deeply personal, means to communicate. Text messaging has spawned its own abbreviated language and subculture, further underlining thehuge impact mobile phones have had on the modern world.
  • The successful transition to a new 3G access technology, WCDMA. Rather than fragmenting into separate interest groups supporting incompatible technologies, the GSM community has demonstrated great unity in agreeing to and implementing the shift to WCDMA.

    What were the tough points?

    On reflection, the lowest point has to be the huge fees mobile phone operators have had to pay to secure 3GSM licences in many European countries. Those multibillion dollar fees have placed a huge financial burden on the industry in Europe.

    What has been the biggest challenge?

    The biggest challenge could be seen as the global evolution from the simple circuit switched technology for voice and text that underpinned GSM, to the introduction of IP-based technologies that enabled the industry to introduce high speed mobile data ?? bringing the world of mobile multimedia over the air waves to users. This, on a global basis, has been both an extraordinary challenge and an incredible opportunity.

    Is CDMA technology perceived as a threat to the growth of GSM?

    No, CDMA technology is not perceived as a threat to the growth of GSM. More than three-quarters of the world’s mobile phone users (78 per cent) have a GSM phone, whereas less than 15 per cent use CDMA.If we put this in perspective, CDMA is a niche technology ?? it always has been and always will be. GSM’s superior economies of scale and roaming capabilities have given it an unstoppable momentum.

    What are the crucial advantages with GSM?

    The biggest advantages of GSM are

  • It is used throughout the world, alloWing people to use their GSM handsets in almost every country.
  • The huge number of GSM users gives equipment makers and mobile operators a vast market, allowing them to spread the cost of developing new handsets, base stations and services across millions of users, offering significant economies of scale.
  • GSM is an end-to-end solution, encompassing everything from handsets to billing systems, which means thatnew GSM operators can get up and running quickly and efficiently.

    What is going to be the key driver to 3G acceptance?

    The key driver to 3G acceptance will be compelling content and services such as downloadable entertainment (music, videos and gaming), plus mobile internet access and several other multimedia services that can be accessed and delivered wherever users are. Another important driver, of course, is enterprise applications such as e-mail, messaging and access to business information.

    Which regions, according to you, would experience high GSM growth?

    The regions experiencing the most rapid GSM growth are the Americas, Eastern Europe and Africa. Asia-Pacific has the most GSM subscribers ?? about 600 million.

    What are the issues and concerns that you perceive as likely to impact the growth of the GSM fraternity?

    There are two main issues that could impact the growth of GSM, both of them government related.

  • Excessive taxes on handsets and services.
  • Governments’ allocation of spectrum.The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) has specified which frequency bands should be used for 3G services on a global basis. The GSM Association is focused on securing ITU-recommended spectrum in the IMT2000 3G core band frequencies in a harmonised way, across the world. Governments should resist assigning these bands to other applications, otherwise they could risk slower economic growth as the result of being isolated from the global communications standard.

    What are your plans for pushing GSM growth?

    There are two agendas: one for emerging markets, the other for emerging services.On the first, the GSM Association is working with handset makers and governments to reduce the cost of mobile communications for less affluent people in developing countries. The second is that the GSM Association is working to ensure that new GSM multimedia services, such as picture messaging and video calling, will work seamlessly and effectively across different networks. That will make GSM even more attractive to both users and businesses.

    Where do we go from 3G?

    3GSM networks still have plenty of scope to evolve. The GSM Association board is committed to an evolution path for 3GSM that involves the adoption of HSDPA, an upgrade which will increase operators’ network speeds threefold, reduce latency and boost capacity. Many networks around the world are already upgrading their 3GSM networks with this new technology.Further improvements are likely as HSDPA technology evolves and rolls out.At the same time, we are seeing greater use of internet protocol to make 3GSM networks more efficient and sophisticated.

    We prefer not to look at the future in terms of “Gs” or generations, rather that the ongoing development of mobile networks and services is a continuous, evolutionary process.