Ericsson has released a report on the mobility trends for the quarter ended September 2017. The report highlights the increase in mobile subscriptions and steady growth in mobile broadband uptake across the world. Long term evolution (LTE) subscriptions are growing at a brisk pace as data consumption across regions has grown manyfold, fuelled primarily by the increased viewing of video content. LTE is expected to become the dominant mobile access technology by end-2017. Further, the concept of internet of things (IoT) has gained significance due to the growth of connected devices. In the coming years, the number of connected IoT devices is expected to increase substantially, driven by new use cases and affordability.
The following are the major highlights of the report…
Mobile subscriptions
In the June-September 2017 quarter, the total number of mobile subscriptions reached 7.8 billion globally, registering 95 million new subscriptions. China witnessed the maximum net subscriber additions during the quarter (over 30 million), followed by Indonesia (over 7 million), the US (over 4 million), Angola (over 4 million) and Pakistan (over 3 million). India’s total mobile subscriptions stood at 1.18 billion as of September 30, 2017. The country will have approximately 800 million voice over LTE (VoLTE) subscribers by 2023, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 42.5 per cent between 2017 and 2023.
Subscriptions associated with smartphones currently account for 57 per cent of all mobile phone subscriptions globally. As far as mobile broadband subscriptions are concerned, these were recorded at 5 billion globally, marking a year-on-year growth of around 20 per cent. Mobile broadband subscriptions will reach 8.5 billion by the end of 2023, accounting for close to 95 per cent of all mobile subscriptions at that time. Further, the Middle East and African region will transform from its current situation, where half of all mobile subscriptions are GSM/EDGE-only, to one where 90 per cent of subscribers use mobile broadband. The driving factors for this growth include a young and growing population with increasing digital skills, and more affordable smartphones.
Meanwhile, VoLTE has now been launched in more than 125 networks in over 60 countries. North America currently has the highest penetration of LTE at close to 80 per cent. The number of VoLTE subscriptions is projected to reach 5.5 billion by the end of 2023, accounting for more than 80 per cent of the combined LTE and 5G subscriptions.
Mobile traffic
In 2016, introductory free data offers in India pushed up global traffic noticeably. The country’s high average data usage, which is estimated to reach 3.9 GB per month per smartphone at the end of 2017, is mainly due to an introductory LTE offer by an operator in the latter half of 2016, which included free voice and data. Further, the monthly mobile data traffic in India is expected to grow eleven times, from 1.3 exabytes (EB) in 2017 to 14 EB by 2023.
Globally, data traffic is expected to continue to grow, reaching 18 GB per month per smartphone in 2023. Going forward, the total mobile data traffic is expected to rise at a CAGR of 42 per cent. The total mobile data traffic for all devices is anticipated to increase by eight times during the forecast period, reaching around 110 EB per month by end-2023. The strong growth in LTE subscriptions and increasing smartphone penetration, as well as the demand for data-intensive applications like video will drive usage. Further, mobile video traffic is becoming dominant among users. Mobile video traffic is forecasted to grow by around 50 per cent annually through 2023 to account for 75 per cent of all mobile data traffic.
IoT and the emergence of 5G
Currently, the dominant technology for IoT is GSM/GPRS. However, by the year 2023, IoT cellular connectivity will mainly be provided by LTE and 5G. The majority of these connections will be over LTE networks, while 5G technology will continue to support an increase in IoT applications, especially those requiring critical communications.
Operators have already deployed multi-standard access networks with GSM, high speed packet access and LTE, and are evolving their existing LTE networks to LTE-Advanced, enabling Gigabit network speeds. Device ecosystems are well aligned as most new smartphones support the latest 3GPP category.
By 2023, there are expected to be over 30 billion connected devices, of which around 20 billion will be related to IoT. The connected IoT devices are expected to increase at a CAGR of 19 per cent between 2017 and 2023. Globally, there will be 1 billion 5G subscriptions for enhanced mobile broadband by 2023. Expected to be deployed first in dense urban areas, 5G will cover over 20 per cent of the world’s population by end-2023. Further, the first commercial networks based on 5G new radio are expected to go live in 2019, with major network deployments starting from 2020.
