The government is pulling out all the stops to ensure that India meets the global 5G deployment timeline of 2020. As per the telecom secretary, Aruna Sundararajan, 5G is crucial for India’s digital transformation and will prove to be a veritable game-changer for critical industries such as agriculture, banking and healthcare, besides telecom.
With the aim of featuring on the global 5G map soon, the government is currently chalking out a roadmap, to be released by end-June 2018. Meanwhile, the Department of Telecommunications is likely to allocate the largest-ever spectrum (nearly 6000 MHz) for 5G roll-out. Recently, a 5G panel constituted by the government identified 11 spectrum bands that can be used for providing 5G services. Of these, spectrum in four premium bands – 700 MHz, 3.5 GHz, 24 GHz and 28 GHz – can be made available immediately.
The incumbent players, however, feel the 2020 target is overambitious. Given their current financial woes, their concern is not unfounded. With the exception of Reliance Jio, the other players have seen their ARPUs and profitability crash. This raises concerns over whether they can afford to make massive investments in networks, infrastructure and technologies to transition to 5G. For instance, fibre penetration would have to be scaled up from the 25-30 per cent at present to 70-80 per cent. 5G would need a robust wireless backhaul, wherein base stations would be required at almost every 50 metres.
On the spectrum front, pricing will be a key consideration. In 2016, the high base price per unit for pan-Indian 700 MHz spectrum, fixed at around Rs 110 billion, was a big deterrent for operators. This situation may recur, if the government does not keep the 5G spectrum prices reasonable.
There will be additional costs for developing an enabling ecosystem around M2M, IoT and AI. 5G will only achieve its true potential once these concepts undergo mass-scale commercialisation.
While the government does not obviously wish to miss the 5G bus, it cannot ignore the host of challenges that the industry currently faces. While the introduction of 5G is bound to alter India’s technology landscape, the country may have to wait beyond 2020 to live its 5G dream.
