According to estimates by JM Financial, Reliance Jio is expected to surpass Bharti Airtel in both overall and per-user revenue growth in the first quarter (Q1) ended June, largely driven by strong traction in fixed wireless access (FWA) home broadband connections.
Jio’s average revenue per user (ARPU) is projected to grow 1.8 per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to Rs 210, aided by an estimated 2 million FWA user additions out of a total 7.2 million net user additions. In comparison, Airtel’s ARPU is forecasted to rise 1.6 per cent to Rs 249.
Vodafone Idea Limited (Vi) is also likely to report a 1.6 per cent ARPU increase to Rs 167, supported by subscriber upgrades, a better mix, and the benefit of an extra day in the April-June quarter. Notably, analysts expect Vi to maintain its overall subscriber base which is a rare occurrence in recent years, owing to its improved 4G network.
Additionally, tariff hikes made by telcos in recent months have now been fully absorbed, and the next round of increases is expected only in 2026, with BofA Securities projecting a 12 per cent rise next year.
Further, JM Financial forecasts Jio’s Q1 FY26 revenue to grow 2.7 per cent sequentially to Rs 312 billion, although its standalone net profit may remain flat at Rs 66.40 billion due to higher depreciation and amortisation from recent 5G spectrum and asset capitalisation.
Furthermore, Airtel’s wireless revenue is expected to rise 2.6 per cent QoQ to Rs 273.05 billion, while its consolidated net profit is projected to jump 47 per cent to Rs 76.90 billion, driven by strong mobile broadband additions. The company is estimated to have added 5.5 million mobile broadband users, down from 6.6 million in the previous quarter, with overall net additions pegged at 2.3 million.
Meanwhile, Vi is expected to post a 1.1 per cent revenue increase to Rs 111 billion, with its net loss narrowing slightly to Rs 71.45 billion.
