According to Canalys report, smartphone shipments in India fell 8 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in first quarter (Q1) of 2025, totalling 32.4 million units, mainly due to persistent demand weakness and elevated channel inventory from late 2024. This inventory overhang disrupted product launch cycles and forced recalibration of channel strategies. vivo retained the top spot with seven million shipment units and a 22 per cent market share, further widening its lead. Samsung shipped 5.1 million units, while Xiaomi followed with four million units, securing third place with a 12 per cent market share. OPPO (excluding OnePlus) and realme shipped 3.9 million and 3.5 million units, respectively.
Commenting on the report, Sanyam Chaurasia, senior analyst, Canalys, said, “With consumer demand still fragile, 2025 is shaping up to be another channel-driven year. In the absence of strong organic pull, vendors are relying heavily on retail and distribution networks to stimulate purchases. Channel schemes, offline activations and tighter sell-out coordination will again define share gains. In Q1 2025, vivo extended its lead with a balanced portfolio and sharp channel execution. Its V50 series capitalised on the ZEISS partnership, wedding-season campaigns and influencer-led events to boost visibility, while the T- and Y-series ensured strong online-offline synergy. OPPO (excluding OnePlus) leveraged its retail strengths, emphasising rugged design, water resistance and long battery life, helping it post steady growth. Meanwhile, realme regained momentum following an inventory correction, with nearly 20 per cent of shipments driven by the new 14X 5G and offline channels now contributing 58 per cent of its volume. Xiaomi’s early Note 14 series launch saw a lukewarm response due to elevated inventory and cautious channel sentiment, though the Redmi 14C 5G helped maintain momentum in the affordable segment.”
He added, “As broader demand softens, brands like Apple and Samsung are anchoring their strategies around upgrade intent and higher application service provider (ASP) plays. Apple achieved its best-ever Q1 in India, driven by strong iPhone 16 series momentum and compelling offers across ecommerce and large format retailers (LFRs) during Republic Day promotions. The introduction of the iPhone 16e allowed Apple to deepen its reach into Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities. Despite starting the quarter with elevated inventory and a 23 per cent YoY drop in total shipments, Samsung witnessed 5 per cent annual growth in its S25 series versus S24 in Q1 2024, driven by premium momentum and conversational artificial intelligence (AI) features. For both brands, ecosystem stickiness and premium-led channel execution will be key strategic levers in the coming quarters.”
Chaurasia further noted, “The evolving US tariff landscape strengthens India’s position in the global smartphone value chain, but demand volatility will test the market in the coming quarters. The tariff changes open the door for increased local manufacturing, with smartphone exports expected to benefit. However, demand-side risks persist, particularly in export-reliant sectors facing softer global demand due to higher US prices. Smartphone demand was already tapering, with the pandemic-led replacement cycle winding down by mid-2025. Consumer sentiment remains fragile, especially in rural areas, where spending hinges on monsoon-linked income. In urban centres, upgrade cycles are slowing, and only ecosystem plays and AI-led innovation will stimulate demand. With limited organic growth drivers and reliance on channel dynamics, the market is expected to grow modestly in 2025. Still, rising ASPs and financing-backed premiumisation present a silver lining, with the sweet spot shifting toward the Rs 20,000 to Rs 30,000 (approximately $250 to $350) price band.”
