According to Crisil research note, the revenue of Reliance Jio, Bharti Airtel and Vodafone Idea Limited (Vi) may rise by 20-25 per cent in fiscal 2023, on the back of the recent tariff hikes. However, this will be partially offset by the downtrading of recharges, as per the ratings agency.
The research report further noted that the telecom operators are also expected to spend incrementally on networks and regulatory capital expenditure (capex) in fiscal 2023, which may impact the ARPU growth, and tariff hikes could ease some pressure.
Besides, Morgan Stanley predicts the industry ARPU to grow by 50 per cent over the next four-five years. It also noted that the industry was in a downturn phase from FY’2016 due to onset of competition from Reliance Jio. However, since the industry repair phase began, revenue has started rising and Morgan Stanley estimates FY’22 to come back to FY’16 levels.
Meanwhile, the Indian private telcos lost nearly 37 million subscribers fiscal year 2021-22 as SIM consolidation led to the shedding of inactive ones. However, their active subscriber base grew 3 per cent year-on-year (by about 29 million).
