According to a report by Counterpoint Research, global smartphone shipments grew 2 per cent year on year (YoY) in the third quarter (Q3) of 2024.
This marks the fourth consecutive quarter the global smartphone market grew. While the smartphone market has enjoyed strong YoY growth over the last few quarters, it is mainly due to a recovery in macroeconomic conditions and consumer demand.
Commenting on the report, Prachir Singh, senior analyst, Counterpoint Research, said, “With the global macroeconomic crisis largely in the rearview window, the recovery wave seen previously has begun to slow down as the comparison base normalises. Some markets, like Latin America, Japan, Eastern Europe and Southeast Asia, continued to recover in Q3, recording YoY market growth. However, shipments in Western Europe and the Middle East and Africa declined YoY as economic recovery slowed down, while the respective ongoing conflicts in both regions continued to put a dampener on consumer sentiment.”
As for the world’s largest markets, shipments in the USA declined YoY as record-low upgrade rates continued to drag down the market. Original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) in India began filling channels slightly earlier than usual for the festive season, helping drive YoY growth. Shipments in China also grew YoY in Q3 as the economy and consumer demand continued to improve. Huawei’s resurgence was a driver.
The report noted that while shipment growth may have slowed in recent quarters, global smartphone revenue growth accelerated in 2024 Q3 recording 10 per cent YoY growth to reach the highest-ever levels for a Q3. Apple led the market in smartphone revenues capturing a 43 per cent share and recording its highest-ever Q3 revenues, shipments, and average selling prices (ASPs).
Further, Jeff Fieldhack, research director, Counterpoint Resseaarch, said, “A slightly earlier launch of the iPhone 16 series, a product mix increasingly favouring pro versions and continued expansion in non-core markets drove Apple’s success in Q3. That said there is reason to remain cautious, the iPhone 16 series has seen mixed results across regions with sales in key markets like the USA down YoY compared to the 15 series. The large installed base of three- and four-year-old iOS devices is likely to keep a steady flow of iPhone 16 sales in the coming quarters–especially as Apple Intelligence features continue to roll out.”
The report added that Samsung’s revenues and shipments declined 2 per cent YoY largely due to declines in India and Latin America. Xiaomi’s revenue growth outpaced shipments growth largely due to a higher mix of premium devices led by the Xiaomi 14 series. Xiaomi became the global number 2 briefly, in terms of sales, in August. vivo grew fastest among the top five OEMs, and was the number 1 OEM, in terms of shipments, in both China and India in Q3. Meanwhile, OPPO’s shipments and revenues declined YoY in Q3. The brand’s global sales returned to YoY growth in September, led by Latin America and ‘APAC Others’. Revenues for the market beyond the top five OEMs recorded strong double-digit YoY growth, outpacing shipments growth significantly in Q3. Android brands like Huawei, Google and Motorola drove growth among Others, with Motorola recording its highest-ever quarterly shipments in the smartphone era.
Furthermore, with most major brands recording strong revenue growth, the more than $400 segment gained a net 2 per cent share YoY in Q3 2024. The ongoing premiumisation wave, observed across regions has incentivised OEMs to rethink their premium portfolio and device financing strategies. We expect the premiumisation trend to continue in the coming years and project global smartphone ASPs to rise at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3 per cent from 2023 through 2028.
Meanwhile, commenting on the near-term outlook, Tarun Pathak, research director, Counterpoint Research said, “The global smartphone market has reached maturity, and shipments are expected to remain stable in the coming years. Growth will likely be driven by emerging markets like India, MEA and Southeast Asia. We expect smartphone revenues to continue to grow through 2028 as the premiumisation trend continues across markets. New technologies like generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) and foldables are also likely to drive ASP growth as adoption rates rise. By 2028, we expect more than half of smartphones shipped to be GenAI capable as broader use cases continue to emerge, and availability expands across price segments.”
