According to Counterpoint Research’s Global Smartphone Shipment Forecast report, global smartphone shipments in 2024 are expected to record a modest rebound of 3 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to reach 1.2 billion units. The budget-economy segment ($150-$249), which shrank Y-o-Y in 2023 due to macroeconomic headwinds, especially in emerging markets, and the premium segment ($600-$799) are expected to drive this rebound.

Unlike 2023, emerging markets such as India and Middle East and Africa (MEA) are expected to drive the global smartphone market’s growth in 2024, supported by the budget-economy segment. The robust inventory levels in quarter 4 (Q4) 2023 are also expected to help.

The budget-economy segment ($150-$249), which experienced a noticeable decline in 2023, is expected to rebound 11 per cent Y-o-Y in 2024, primarily driven by India, MEA and Caribbean and Latin American (CALA) markets. As inflationary pressures have eased considerably across Africa, and local currencies have stabilised in many countries, consumer purchasing power has recovered, benefiting $150-$249 segment.

Steady investments into MEA and CALA markets by Chinese original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) like OPPO, Vivo, Xiaomi and Transsion Group, have intensified the competition, stimulating the demand for budget-economy smartphones. Alongside the recovery of demand for information technology (IT) devices in emerging markets, intensified competition between Chinese OEMs will be the main growth driver in the segment.

The premium segment ($600-$799) is expected to maintain steady growth in 2024, rising 17 per cent Y-o-Y. In particular, the introduction of GenAI smartphones and the popularity of foldables will stimulate consistent demand for premium smartphones.

Apple and Huawei are likely to lead the premium segment’s growth. The steady demand for iPhones, particularly in emerging markets such as India and MEA, will drive Apple’s growth. Huawei is expected to retain its strong presence in China’s smartphone market in 2024. With the release of its 5G Kirin chipset, the brand will continue to see a sturdy demand in China.

For the longer term, report expects low-single-digit Y-o-Y increase for global smartphone shipments as the market seem to have bottomed out.