The introduction of 5G in India has revolutionised the digital landscape, catalysing a substantial surge in data consumption. This advancement heralds a transformative era of connectivity, promising faster speeds and enhanced network capabilities for users across the nation.
The latest edition of the Nokia Mobile Broadband India Traffic Index (MBiT) report assesses 5G and 4G data traffic growth and trends across India. It also tracks data consumption per user and sheds light on the device ecosystem in India. Further, the report highlights emerging trends for 2030 including cybersecurity; advances in artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), metaverse and cloud technology; addressing new and heightened demands; and unlocking the potential of a vibrant, collaborative solution ecosystem.
A look at the key highlights of the report…
Mobile data traffic
According to the report, the launch of 5G has emerged as a significant catalyst for growth in data usage, accounting for 15 per cent of all data traffic in 2023. Users consumed 17.4 exabytes (EB) of data per month in 2023, at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26 per cent over the past five years. There was a year-on-year (YoY) growth of 20.8 per cent between December 2022 and December 2023.
The report states that 5G users have been consuming approximately 3.6 times more mobile data than 4G users since 5G’s launch in October 2022. 4G had a 98.3 per cent data traffic contribution in 2022. In 2023, 5G started gaining traction and its traffic contribution reached 14.8 per cent, as compared to 1.7 per cent in 2022. Meanwhile, the data contribution of 2G and 3G was marginal and reduced.
A significant increase in 5G uptake had taken place by the end of December 2022, with 12 million data subscribers. This reached 131 million by the end of December 2023. Meanwhile, 4G subscribers in 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2023 were 432 million, 598 million, 702 million, 787 million and 724 million respectively.
According to the report, the expected subscriber base of 5G is projected to be 575 million by 2026, and that of 4G and 5G combined to be 1,155 million. Moving ahead, 5G data usage is expected to reach 310 EB per annum by 2026.
The report highlights a paradigm shift in the Indian mobile data landscape, driven by the growing adoption of 5G technology. 5G traffic has shown substantial growth across all telecom circles, with metro circles leading the charge by reaching a 20 per cent share in the overall mobile data traffic, followed by Category A at 17 per cent, Category C at 14 per cent and Category B at 12 per cent. The pan-India contribution of 5G in overall data traffic is 15 per cent.
As per the latest data (as of December 2023), there is a visible increase in traffic between 2022 and 2023. The YoY growth was 18.5 per cent in metro circles, with 4G+5G payload increasing from 1.3 EB per month in 2022 to 1.5 EB per month in 2023. On a pan-India level, there was a YoY growth of 20.8 per cent, with payloads rising from 14.4 EB per month in 2022 to 17.4 EB per month in 2023.
Enhanced 5G availability and performance, coupled with the availability of a wide range of affordable devices and the introduction of new data-intensive apps and services, will accelerate future 5G growth.
The average monthly mobile data per user grew to 24 per cent (YoY) in 2023. Further, the CAGR between 2019 and 2023 stood at 21.1 per cent, with an average mobile data consumption of 24.1 GB per user per month in 2023. The data consumption is expected to grow even further, up to 28-30 GB per user per month by the end of 2024.
The rise of 5G fixed wireless access (FWA) has also served as a key enabler of new services in homes as well as businesses, with FWA users consuming 2.5 times more data on average than 5G users.
On average, 5G users consumed 3.6 times more data than 4G users during the period under consideration.
According to the report, there were 54,000 5G base station transceivers in India in January 2023, which increased to 412,000 by December 2023, representing the world’s fastest roll-out of site deployments in a year.
4G/5G device ecosystem
India had around 501 million, 607 million and 649 million 4G-capable devices in 2019, 2020 and 2021 respectively. It had 730 million 4G-capable devices in 2022, of which 80 million were 5G-capable. The 5G device ecosystem in India is evolving, rapidly with approximately 17 per cent of active 4G devices, totalling 134 million out of 796 million, now being 5G-capable (as of December 2023). Going forward, the number of 5G-capable devices is expected to reach 158 million by the end of March 2024.
Technology in 2030
The report speculates that the years leading up to 2030 will produce major shifts in technology, leading to new opportunities, and a digitised and programmable world. The report predicts a CAGR of approximately 25 per cent for end-user data traffic demand on global telecom networks by 2030, with consumption expected to be between 2,443 and 3,109 EB per month.
The key technology themes shaping the world in 2030 will include the metaverse, AI, ML, cloud and Web 3.0. The metaverse’s potential value creation is estimated to be $5 trillion, while edge computing is projected to earn $445 billion in revenue by 2030. Meanwhile, the market worth of blockchain and AI is expected to reach $508.1 billion and $908.7 billion by then, at a CAGRs of 62.4 per cent and 35 per cent respectively between 2022 and 2030.
Macrotrends shaping the technology world of 2030
Macroeconomics, geopolitics and regulation: Population migration and demographic shifts influence regional trading blocks and protectionism, while restricted trade in critical technologies intersect with global standardisation threats. AI regulation, network security and resiliency regulations also emerge amid evolving geopolitical landscapes.
Sustainability: Addressing climate change mitigation and biodiversity loss necessitates robust policies on circularity and sustainability. Concurrently, ensuring digital inclusion is integral to fostering equitable access to solutions. These efforts will collectively drive forward a more sustainable and resilient global ecosystem.
Innovation: Regional disparities shape innovation priorities, with AI integration and semiconductor advancements meeting growing demands. Quantum technology remains a focal point for investment. Moreover, increased expenditure on climate, medical and defence technologies underscores a broader commitment to technological progress across various sectors.
Work: AI-driven productivity reshapes labour needs across multiple sectors, necessitating upskilling and adaptation.As industries evolve, demands for specialised skills emerge, highlighting the importance of continuous learning and flexible workforce strategies to meet dynamic labour requirements in diverse fields.
Security and privacy: The cybersecurity arms race intensifies amid growing concerns over privacy and trustworthiness. Emphasising life cycle management and supply chain security becomes paramount, as vulnerabilities at any stage can compromise systems. Safeguarding digital infrastructure requires a holistic approach addressing these multifaceted challenges.
Future outlook
5G mobile data consumption is expected to grow, with the average monthly data per user estimated to increase by over 24 per cent by the end of 2024. 5G FWA is expected to emerge as a perfect complement to communications service provider mobile offerings, bringing more revenue and enabling new services for homes and businesses. 5G-advanced will bring a new level of enhanced capabilities beyond connectivity, and enable a wider set of advanced use cases for verticals. Furthermore, commercial deployment is expected to happen in 2025, whereas the years leading up to 2030 will produce major shifts in technology, creating a business opportunity of up to $5 trillion with the metaverse.
