The telecommunications industry is on the verge of a transformative era, driven by the rapid adoption of 5G technology. According to the latest Ericsson Mobility Report, 5G is poised to become the dominant mobile access technology by subscription, with global 5G subscriptions projected to reach nearly 5.6 billion by 2029. This comprehensive report highlights the significant strides made in 5G deployment both globally and in India, underscoring the technological advancements and strategic shifts shaping the future of mobile connectivity.
The report covers the explosive growth in mobile data traffic and the resurgence of the smartphone market powered by artificial intelligence (AI). It provides valuable insights into the evolving telecom landscape, including regional variations in 5G penetration and the impact of digital transformation initiatives, particularly in India, where large-scale 5G deployments have propelled the country to the forefront of the global digital economy.
While 5G population coverage is expanding, the 5G mid-band is currently deployed in only 25 per cent of all sites globally, excluding mainland China. The 5G mid-band spectrum strikes a balance between coverage and capacity, enhancing user experience, as demonstrated by measurements from a leading service provider. As 5G matures, many service providers are expected to shift their focus toward developing differentiated connectivity offerings.
5G subscriptions in India
Due to intensive 5G network deployments, widespread coverage and the availability of affordable 5G services in the country, 5G subscriptions in India reached around 119 million by the end of 2023. This number is projected to grow to around 840 million by the end of 2029, accounting for 65 per cent of mobile subscriptions in the region.
Meanwhile, enhanced mobile broadband and fixed wireless access (FWA) are emerging as initial 5G use cases. Total mobile subscriptions in the region are estimated to increase from 1.2 billion in 2023 to 1.3 billion in 2029. 4G continues to be the dominant subscription type, driving connectivity and fuelling data growth.
However, due to strong 5G uptake, 4G subscriptions are forecast to decline from 740 million in 2023 to 410 million by 2029.
Global
As per the report, 5G is expected to become the dominant mobile access technology by subscription in 2028. Global 5G subscriptions are projected to reach almost 5.6 billion in 2029, accounting for 60 per cent of all mobile subscriptions at that time. It is projected that North America will maintain the highest 5G penetration in 2029 at 90 per cent, followed closely by the Gulf Cooperation Council at 89 per cent and Western Europe at 86 per cent.
The report also highlighted that during the first quarter, 3G subscriptions declined by 37 million, while 2G subscriptions decreased by 41 million. The phase-out of 2G and 3G networks continues around the world. The timeline for this transition varies based on the country and service provider, but it is anticipated to happen more quickly for 3G networks than for 2G in the coming years.
For instance, an overwhelming majority of service providers in Europe are currently shutting down 3G networks to reform spectrum for 4G and 5G, while maintaining 2G for legacy internet of things (IoT) services. Approximately 300 service providers have now launched commercial 5G services, and around 50 have deployed or launched 5G standalone (SA).
India embraces 5G
India’s digital transformation vision aims to leverage technology to drive economic growth, improve governance and enhance citizens’ quality of life. This vision encompasses initiatives to expand digital access and services to various segments of society, promote innovation and bridge the digital divide. Through this, 5G is expected to bring about transformative changes by providing faster, differentiated and more reliable connectivity.
This shift will enable the widespread adoption of emerging technologies, support the development of smart cities and IoT ecosystems and facilitate the seamless integration of various digital services and applications.
Meanwhile, India saw one of the world’s fastest large-scale 5G network deployments following its launch in 2022. This increased the country’s median mobile download speed by 259 per cent between September 2022 and August 2023, raising its ranking from 119th to 47th position on the Speedtest Global Index. By April 2024, India’s ranking had further climbed to the 15th position. The introduction of more affordable 5G-capable devices in the market has helped increase 5G adoption in the country.
India’s 5G smartphone shipment share crossed 52 per cent in 2023, with strong growth in the $100–$199 price range. Amidst the rapidly growing demand for mobile services and the ongoing digital transformation, Indian service providers are implementing diverse strategies to expand digital access and provide services to a wide range of market segments.
Smartphone market recovers
In 2024, the global smartphone market is experiencing a resurgence, marking a 6 per cent year-on-year growth in shipments fuelled by the integration of generative AI capabilities. These AI enhancements are transforming user behaviours and app consumption patterns across all smartphone segments, from high-end to mid-tier devices.
The report highlights that the shift towards 5G standalone (SA) networks is gaining momentum, offering increased flexibility and scalability for service providers to cater to diverse use cases with tailored network slices.
This advancement is expected to drive further adoption of 5G technology, particularly in premium devices supporting advanced features such as six-carrier aggregation for speeds exceeding 3.5 Gbps.
Simultaneously, innovations in reduced capability (RedCap) technology are expanding, with applications extending beyond smartphones to include routers, cameras, and soon, wearables and industrial devices by 2025. The market is witnessing advancements in narrowband non-terrestrial network technology, integrated into system-on-a-chip designs to support text messaging and low data-rate services.
By 2025, the industry anticipates broader adoption of 5G new radio non-terrestrial networks (NR-NTN), aiming to establish a unified standard for satellite calling and communication in areas lacking traditional cellular coverage. These technological strides signal a dynamic year ahead for the smartphone and network technology sectors, poised for continued innovation and growth.
New opportunities with slicing and RedCap In India
Various industries, such as manufacturing, healthcare, agriculture and smart cities, are increasingly deploying IoT solutions to improve efficiency, productivity and customer experience. Government initiatives and investments in smart cities and digital infrastructure are further driving the growth of the IoT market. The deployment of smart meters to 20 million homes has already been initiated in cooperation with a power transmission company.
At present, IoT applications primarily rely on narrowband-IoT as well as 4G LTE devices. However, the scope of potential use cases is broadening with the evolution of 5G SA network architecture and the emergence of RedCap 5G NR devices. RedCap offers improved latency and lower energy consumption while enabling a wide range of use cases for consumers and enterprises.
As per the report, Airtel is also testing end-to-end network slicing that enables new business model innovations and use cases across verticals, creating new revenue opportunities. 5G network slicing allows the creation of multiple virtual networks within a physical 5G network infrastructure, each tailored to specific use cases and requirements of different industries such as healthcare, transportation and manufacturing.
Moreover, it provides service flexibility and the ability to deliver services faster with high security, isolation and the applicable characteristics to meet the contracted service level agreement. These technology advancements are important building blocks for future communications networks and will play a crucial role in ushering in Industry 4.0.
India’s dominance in 5G mid-band coverage
According to the report, India has achieved remarkable progress in its 5G mid-band deployments, reaching over 90 per cent population coverage by the end of 2023. This extensive deployment places India at the forefront of 5G advancement, significantly contributing to the global increase in mid-band population coverage, which has reached 35 per cent outside of mainland China.
North America follows closely, with 85 per cent mid-band coverage, demonstrating rapid deployment and a comprehensive strategy that includes low, mid and high-band frequencies. 5G deployment continues globally, with around 300 networks launched worldwide, pushing the overall 5G population coverage to about 40 per cent (outside of mainland China) by the end of 2023. This figure is projected to soar to 80 per cent by 2029.
4G networks are also experiencing robust deployment, with 830 networks worldwide, 346 of which have been upgraded to LTE-Advanced and 161 to Gigabit capability. By the end of 2023, 4G population coverage outside of mainland China surpassed 85 per cent and is expected to exceed 95 per cent by 2029.
Future trends
Looking ahead to 2029, 5G is poised to dominate global mobile data traffic, expected to account for approximately 75 per cent compared to 25 per cent in 2023. The overall mobile data traffic, excluding fixed wireless access (FWA), is projected to triple to 313 EB per month, reaching 466 EB per month when FWA is included. Challenges such as regional economic factors, advancements in technologies like AI and extended reality applications, and evolving consumer preferences will shape growth rates, leading to varied traffic patterns across different regions.
In regions like India, Latin America, Southeast Asia and Africa, substantial migration to newer mobile technologies is anticipated, contingent upon network capabilities, pricing strategies and service accessibility. Specifically, the Indian region is expected to see mobile data usage per active smartphone user increase from 29 GB per month in 2023 to 68 GB per month by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 15 per cent, which is more than any other region. These trends highlight the dynamic evolution and significant impact of 5G on the future landscape of mobile data usage.
