At the launch of the 12th edition of the Mobile Broadband Index (MBiT) report in New Delhi, Sandeep Saxena, Head of Technology and Solutions, Nokia India, shared key insights into the remarkable growth of mobile data, the rapid adoption of 5G, and what the future holds beyond 5G. Edited excerpts from his address…

Over the past five years, we have witnessed an extraordinary growth in mobile data consumption. The cumulative growth rate stands at 22 per cent, with mobile data usage reaching 21.5 exabytes per month in 2024, up from 17.4 exabytes in 2023, registering a significant 23 per cent increase. The rapid expansion of 5G technology across India is the primary driver of this growth.

Category B and C circles are leading the growth in 5G traffic. Category B circles are estimated to contribute 3.4x, while category C circles are contributing 3.2x. There is substantial growth in 5G traffic across metros as well, as it has grown from 20 per cent to 43 per cent. While metros have seen significant stand-alone growth, the largest surge in pan-India 5G traffic comes from Category B and
C circles.

The average mobile usage for a user per month is approximately 27.5 GB. From an application perspective, fixed wireless access (FWA) is the primary contributor to 5G traffic. Today, a 5G FWA user consumes 12 times more data than a regular 4G/5G mobile subscriber. FWA alone accounts for 25 per cent of the total 5G data consumption, solidifying its position as a leading use case for 5G technology. It has clearly emerged as one of the leading applications of 5G technology.

It is expected that by early 2026, 5G traffic will surpass 4G traffic, which means that more than 50 per cent of the overall contribution in the mobile traffic will come from 5G.

5G device ecosystem

The number of mobile subscribers in India is above 1 billion, with the subscriber base for 4G and 5G beyond 900 million. Today, India has over 290 million 5G subscribers, which is expected to reach 770 million by 2028, with an estimated 120 million new 5G users being added each year. Over the next three to four years, it is estimated that approximately 120 million new 5G subscribers will be added every year.

Smartphone replacement trends also indicate strong momentum for 5G. There are approximately 844 million active 4G devices; however, in just one year, the number of 5G-capable devices has doubled from 2023 to 2024 to reach 271 million. In 2024, 80 per cent of smartphone replacements were 5G-capable devices, and this figure is projected to rise to 90 per cent in 2025. This signals a clear shift towards a 5G-driven future.

Frequency bands

In India, the most widely used frequency band for 5G is 3.5 GHz (3500 MHz, also called N78), which is supported by all
5G devices.

If operators decide to refarm their LTE layers, which layers exist in India? The existing layers include 850 MHz (used by Reliance and Airtel), 900 MHz (used by Airtel and Vodafone Idea), 1800 MHz, 2100 MHz and 3D LTE. These are typical LTE layers. In addition, 2300 MHz and 3500 MHz are TD-LTE layers, while the rest are FD-LTE layers.

If an operator chooses to refarm any one of these LTE layers to 5G, will today’s 5G devices support that layer? That is what the data shows:

  • 3500 MHz (the base 5G layer): 100 per cent of 5G devices support it.
  • 2100 MHz: If refarmed to 5G, 92 per cent of current 5G devices in India will support it.
  • 1800 MHz: If refarmed to 5G, 85 per cent of current 5G devices in India will support it.

There is already decent device penetration if operators choose to refarm these layers. From an operator’s perspective, it is not only about the capacity 5G can provide but also about the growing base of
5G devices.

Looking ahead, if 2300 MHz – a commonly used TD-LTE capacity layer – or 1800/2100 MHz are refarmed, they are likely to be the preferred layers. More than 85 per cent of current 5G devices would support this transition, whether it happens now or in the near future. Overall, this presents a positive outlook for 5G device adoption in India.

5G Advanced

Moving beyond 5G, 5G Advanced is a stepping stone before we move towards 6G. Key advancements in this transition will involve distributed massive multiple-input multiple-output, artificial intelligence (AI)-native network fabric, new spectrum and radio architectures, and the evolution of intent-based automation. We believe that 5G Advanced will deliver superior service differentiation, enable new revenue streams and drive down operational costs by leveraging intelligent and autonomous operations.

At Nokia, we believe that 5G Advanced will be built around four key concepts:

The first aspect is experience, which encompasses both digital and immersive experiences of end users. Applications will significantly benefit from these enhanced experiences.

5G Advanced will improve data speeds, coverage, reliability and overall network performance, offering users an even more immersive digital experience. These include unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) traffic cameras; non-terrestrial networks; wearables (sensors); high-speed mobility; indoor/outdoor extended reality, augmented reality and virtual reality; GNSS alternative and resiliency solutions; point-of-sale systems for applications such as banking; asset tracking (transportation); and AI/machine learning (ML)-driven solutions.

The second and third aspects are extension and expansion. Extension involves broadening the reach of communication towards other devices. For instance, UAVs and automated ground vehicles would be supported by 5G Advanced. At the same time, advanced positioning technologies leveraging 5G Advanced will enable centimetre-level accuracy. These advancements will extend the reach of  5G Advanced technology and drive its expansion. For instance, they will play a key role in developing non-terrestrial networks.

The fourth aspect of 5G Advanced is excellence, which focuses on AI and ML-driven enhancements across random access networks, the core and the network management layer. These advancements will improve performance, optimise networks and enhance energy efficiency.

6G

6G is expected to play a vital role in shaping the future of communications. 6G is the fusion of the digital and the physical world. As data consumption is expected to reach 50 GB by 2030, a reliable network is needed to cater to meet this data demand.

At the same time, the rapidly growing device ecosystem will require systems capable of supporting a diverse range of devices across multiple access points.

In this era of AI, its integration is expanding across all layers of communication networks. AI is being implemented in devices, on the radio side, within the management layer, and in the security layer. AI will be incorporated at every node in the network – radio, management, security, etc. – and this will drive the future of 6G.

Sustainability through green energy is another key focus. Reducing power consumption is essential, and 6G is expected to achieve around 50 per cent reduction in energy usage in the coming years through technological advancements.

However, the most important aspect is digital inclusion, which encompasses several key factors. The first is accessibility, ensuring that technology reaches all users. The second is affordability, making connectivity and digital services economically viable for everyone. The third is applicability, ensuring that technology benefits various industries. It is essential for technology to enhance people’s lives, with applications spanning education, entertainment, agriculture, logistics, etc.

Conclusion

To summarise, 5G is expected to surpass 4G by early 2026. As device upgrades continue, 90 per cent of replaced smartphones will be 5G-capable. The future lies in 5G Advanced and 6G with significant advancements under way.

As a technology provider, Nokia is committed to driving these innovations in India. With a state-of-the-art portfolio, access to cutting-edge technology and partnerships with the communication service providers, Nokia is well-positioned to support the country’s growth in 5G and beyond.